It's hard to predict exactly what effect the Supreme Court vacancy and looming confirmation fight will have on specific down-ballot races, but if there's one Republican incumbent who's undoubtedly in a tough place on the issue it's, Inside Elections shifted Collins' race from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic -- a reflection not just of her Supreme Court conundrum, but also of the reality of running as a Republican in a state where Trump is not likely to do well and where. Miscellaneous: 2 (Likely Republican: AL-1, NY-24). 0 CQ Roll Call is a part of FiscalNote, the leading technology innovator at the intersection of global business and government. While it would be a drag to talk about each race individually, the factors that led to my ratings in this category were performance last cycle, how fast a district is trending blue, and how far the Democrats really pushed these incumbents last year.

Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez is mounting a strong challenge to Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Solid Democratic Solid Republican. Ind, 0 Inside Elections updated their 2020 House outlook on Friday. 15. Trump will lose the district again (he lost it by 16 points in 2016), but his performance with Cuban Americans and Gimenez’s local profile as the face of the coronavirus response gives him higher positive name identification than typical challengers. Thursday's changes mean that four GOP-held Senate seats are now Tilt Democratic races, which is good news for a party that needs a net gain of four seats to flip the chamber -- or three if Joe Biden wins the White House, since the vice president breaks ties in the Senate. Two months later, just before Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death, Inside Elections shifted the race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. For perhaps the first time in the state's history, Arizonans are learning what it's like to live in a swing state.

Click on bars to see solid seats breakdown. ??? But even if the GOP swept the Toss-Up Races, which is extremely unlikely, they’d still come up 4 short of a majority. That's the lesson in Colorado's 3rd District, where. all three appear to be ripe pickup opportunities, because the three incumbents in these seats no longer have the advantage of being under the radar, and are likely to be pummeled with attack ads.

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