The original election projection website, since 2003.

This is how Republican-leaning independents break down, combining the last two Marquette polls: 70% Trump, 11% Biden, 9% Jo Jorgensen, the Libertarian candidate. “The surrounding counties in the region, though, have stayed very Republican, and to the north and west of Green Bay have become even more Republican than before. He also did so against an unusually unpopular opponent, Mrs. Clinton. Among likely voters who rate the economy positively (42% in Minnesota, 45% in Wisconsin), Trump leads Biden by wide margins; among those who are little worried or unworried that they or a family member might catch the coronavirus (32% in Minnesota, 37% in Wisconsin), it's Trump again overwhelmingly. 2020 Wisconsin Presidential Election Polls. As noted, in Minnesota, Biden leads Trump by 22 points in trust to handle the coronavirus, as well as 24 points on equal treatment of racial groups, 17 points on handling health care, 14 points on discouraging violence at political protests and 11 points on crime and safety. It's a dead heat on the economy. Education. Underscoring Trump's challenges in Minnesota, Biden also leads there, by 11 points, in trust to handle crime and safety, while in Wisconsin the two are tied on this issue.

Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of 789 likely voters in Wisconsin from Oct. 8 to Oct. 11 and 614 likely voters in Michigan from Oct. 6 to Oct. 11. The Trump base is white men without college degrees. * Polls marked with an asterisk are partisan polls.

The race is tighter in the historically competitive eastern Twin Cities suburbs and in the south, where Biden's lead narrows to non-significant 10- and 12-point margins, respectively. As elsewhere, increased early voting raises the possibility that election results may be delayed as the influx of absentee votes is counted. Trump’s struggles with female voters have been a huge part of the story of this election. The polls, all released in quick succession, come after a roughly three-month drought of quality polling in Wisconsin.

2020 Wisconsin Presidential Election Polls. Given the political deadlock among WEC Commissioners and the apparent lack of state law guidance on this subject — as well as the fact that this postmark requirement is federally mandated and the apparent importance of equal treatment of ballots after Bush v. Gore, 531 U.S. 98 (2000) — it is this court’s view that local election officials should generally err toward counting otherwise legitimate absentee ballots lacking a definitive postmark if received by mail after election day but no later than November 9, 2020, as long as the ballot is signed and witnessed on or before November 3, 2020, unless there is some reason to believe that the ballot was actually placed in the mail after election day. About six in 10 registered voters in both states express worry that they or a family member might catch the coronavirus, and more than half rate the national economy negatively -- two factors that independently predict support for Biden. Unlike some researchers in other states, Marquette’s team in 2016 made sure to weight its data by education levels, and it did not significantly underestimate Mr. Trump’s strength among white voters without degrees. In Wisconsin, Biden maintains strong leads in Dane County and Milwaukee. Green Bay, a heavily blue-collar city in the northeastern part of the state, has been in the news recently as the coronavirus has surged. People of other racial and ethnic backgrounds make up small shares of likely voters in both states, 10% in Wisconsin and 13% in Minnesota. See details on the survey's methodology here. Since the rise of the Tea Party movement a decade ago, white men without college degrees in Wisconsin have shifted toward the Republican Party in large numbers — a development that predated Mr. Trump’s rise, but that he certainly accelerated. While 2016 comparisons aren't available, Trump does better against Biden in military households than in non-military ones in both states. FiveThirtyEight gave him less than a one-in-six chance of winning the state. For Mr. Trump, all of this puts an unwelcome focus on the coronavirus in the most politically volatile region of the state. Trump Defectors Help Biden Build Leads in Wisconsin and Michigan, How the Northern Battlegrounds Have Gone From Trump +3 to Biden +6. The president’s margin of victory was extremely narrow, and he failed to reach 50 percent of the vote in each of the decisive states. Compare that with the pandemic itself: on this, 54% in Wisconsin and 60% in Minnesota disapprove of Trump's work. Fully 50 percent of Wisconsin voters said they did not expect the virus to be under control for at least another year, running counter to Mr. Trump’s insistence that it is already being handled effectively. Please let us know if you're having issues with commenting. It didn’t. What are the ingredients of Biden’s modest but steady lead in Wisconsin over the past six months?

In this photo provided by Wisconsin Watch, election workers Jeff and Lori Lutzka, right, process absentee ballots at Milwaukee's central count facility on Aug. 11, 2020. Views on another issue also interact with vote choices. DOWNLOAD THE APP: Get the latest news, sports and more, which came to a head in August in Kenosha, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. This week, the president might be on firmer political ground; the confirmation hearings of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court have begun.
And Biden is +23 points among college-educated whites, compared with Clinton's +12. And the differences between Trump and Biden voters in their intended vote method suggests that intermediate election night counts may be far from the actual outcome. This year, again, virtually every poll has shown the Democrat, Joseph R. Biden Jr., with at least a slight edge over Mr. Trump. The Packers, the town’s beloved N.F.L. The CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted online August 4-7 in Wisconsin … In Wisconsin, it's a close 46%-52%. The president did not appear poised to benefit from the public’s sympathy; by at least a two-to-one margin in both states, voters said the president did not take adequate precautions to protect against the coronavirus. * The average includes the most recent poll from each source within the past 30 days, up to a maximum of five. Trump’s generational base is voters in their 50s and late 40s. Trump is winning men by 7 this fall (combining Marquette’s September and October poll) but Biden is winning women by 19. THANK YOU: Subscribers' support makes this work possible. Over all, voters thought Ms. Harris defeated Mr. Pence in the debate, 40 percent to 33 percent, with her advantage appearing to reflect little more than Mr. Biden’s overall advantage in the presidential race. Can Trump Hold On to Wisconsin? “Certainly, with the sharp rise in cases here, it’s on the agenda for voters,” said Charles Franklin, a political scientist who runs the Marquette Law School poll, which is seen as the definitive political survey in the state.

The results remain relatively unchanged from the survey taken earlier in September, which showed Biden leading 47.7 percent to Trump’s 44.9. And that’s not the only issue where he’s hurting. Election Projection. The fact that “non-college” whites are such a large part (more than half) of the electorate in Wisconsin is very helpful to Trump, but he’s not winning these voters by the same margins he did against Clinton in 2016.
Around 20 percent of voters do not have an opinion on either of them. He’s splitting the suburban vote (when you include suburbs across the state, not just the GOP suburbs outside Milwaukee County).