Besides, the nocturnal urban heat island is intensifying (6). Conversely, the two wettest winters were 1937/38 (+ 56%) and 1977/78 (+ 55%) (7). There has been a two-part change in extreme rainfall event occurrence across the UK from 1961 to 2000. with a 30–50% chance of happening each year) (10). Three time slices were studied: the decades with the historic situation for 1960-1970 and 2000-2010, and the decade 2000-2010 in a representation of a world that might have been without anthropogenic climate change. A future simulation of summer precipitation for the future period 2031 - 2036 with a detailed weather model and a high-end scenario of climate change (RCP8.5) suggests that, compared with the period 1990 - 1995, the summers will possibly be drier, with longer dry spells, shorter wet spells and heavier precipitation, especially in the southeast of the UK. Projections of future change (measured relative to the 1960-1991 baseline) for Northern Ireland if high emissions continue are a change in winter mean precipitation very likely to be between -3 to +10% by 2020s, 2 to 19% by 2050s and +6 to +34% by 2080s, and a change in summer mean precipitation very likely to be between -15 to +10% by 2020s, -28 to +4% by 2050s and -39 to +4% by 2080s (16). The present-day likelihood of a summer temperature anomaly at or above that of 2018 is approximately 11–12%, which is a factor of 30 higher than estimated for a world without man-made greenhouse gas emissions. Studies have shown that this observed rate of warming cannot be explained by natural climate variations, but is consistent with the response to increasing greenhouse gases and aerosols simulated by the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model. © Columbus Travel Media Ltd. All rights reserved 2020, Due to the impact of COVID-19, you are recommended to check travel restrictions from your government sources and contact local venues to verify any new rules, Sandown and Shanklin beaches, Isle of Wight. In both seasons, precipitation extremes will intensify (39). (2003), UKCIP09 UL Climate Projections 09, in: Northern Ireland Environment Agency (2009? alternative sandbag flood barriers for flood protection. Storms producing large damaging hailstones are rare in the UK, and almost always occur during the summer months (26). In 2007, heavy flooding in England and Wales followed very high daily and 5-day totals of rainfall, resulting in economic losses of approximately £3 billion (29). (2012), Jenkins et al. (2016), Osborn and Hulme (2002), in: De Leeuw et al. Sea surface temperatures around the UK coast have risen over the past three decades by about 0.7ºC (1). Regional climate differences in the United Kingdom The United Kingdom has a temperate maritime climate. These are transformed from being as light as a pillowcase to being more effective than traditional sandbags in just three minutes and are ideal at soaking up spills as well as stopping any floodwater. The results show that high precipitation events like that which caused the floods in 2007 have become more likely. These are included here for convenience of reference. From 1901 to 1998, annual precipitation in Wales has increased only very slightly (+3%) over this period. By the 2080s the predicted warming is 1.5-3.5⁰C in winter and spring, 2-5.5⁰C in summer, and 2-5⁰C in autumn (13). For these scenarios summer temperature may increase between 2-3⁰C and up to 5⁰C. Wales tends to be wetter than England, with slightly less sunshine. In central Birmingham the urban heat island effect could add a further 3 to 4ºC to temperatures during summer nights (6). The official title of the UK is the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.. (2015a), both in: Stendel et al. Year-to-year variability in seasonal temperatures also changes in the future. West Midlands. Northern Ireland. In contrast, a precipitation increase of 10-35% or more is projected for most regions in winter (39). This conclusion is based on research in which a cold spell (CS) is defined as a non-interrupted sequence of days in which the 5-day average temperature falls below a threshold value Tcold (20). The orographic enhancement means that the wettest places are in west Scotland, northwest England and north Wales, with annual average rainfall of over 3000 mm in places. Summer rainfall has decreased since the 1880s, and winter rainfall has increased over the last 150-200 years. Winter precipitation might increase by between 0% and 10% by the 2020s and up to 20% by the 2050s. (2006), in: Kay and Crooks (2014), Report Environment Agency UK (2010), in: Otto et al. 1975) occur 64 per cent of the time by the 2050s and 80 per cent of the time by the 2080s. No trend in storms producing hailstones with diameters of 40mm or greater was identified between 1800 and 1999 over the UK, or in the number of damaging hailstorms (hailstones greater than 15mm diameter) between 1930 and 2000 (26). By the 2080s snowfall in winter is predicted to decrease by 70-90% (13). The highland area comprises the mountainous regions of Scotland, Northern Ireland, northern England and North Wales. By 2050s an extreme summer may be up to 3.7ºC warmer than the average for the baseline 1961-1990 (2). Future changes in anticyclonic weather are equally unclear. East Midlands. Please click here if you are looking for the full references for the United Kingdom.